Posted by Michael Earl Patton

In July, Mayor Mark Mallory announced the results of a study which purportedly showed that Cincinnati was actually growing—maybe even booming—in population.  Specifically, that the city’s population is 46,007 more than what the U.S. Census Bureau estimated.  A few questioned such a finding since a large increase seems at odds with the declining school population. Now there is further evidence of a continuing exodus from the city.

In the past election there were 61,465 ballots cast in the City of Cincinnati (this number may change slightly with the last recount).  2007 was an off-off year election—no President or Congress, and no mayor on the ballot.  The previous off-off year election, 2003, there were 67,704 ballots cast in the city.  This means a 9% decline in 4 years.  In the county as a whole there were 200,286 cast in 2007 (again, this number may change slightly) and 184,082 in 2003.  For the county as a whole there was a 9% increase.

Let me repeat that.  For the city there was a 9% decrease in ballots cast compared to 2003, but in the county as a whole there was a 9% increase.  The hot issue, number 27 (jail tax) affected the whole county, so why didn’t it bring out more city voters?  The weather was wonderful in 2003 and only middling in 2007, but why didn’t it stop county voters from turning out if it stopped city voters?  Or had many city voters simply moved and simply weren’t there to vote?

As further evidence, consider the number of buildings ordered vacant or condemned by the city’s Building and Inspection Department.  Around Thanksgiving of 2006 there were 1,777 buildings on the list.  But as of December 3, there were 2,099 buildings on the list.  And that presumably does not count the ones that had been torn down in the past year.

The 2000 Census counted 330,662 people in Cincinnati, which continues a decline since 1960 when the population was 502,550.  For 2005 the Census Bureau initially estimated the population to be 308,728, a number which was later challenged by the City of Cincinnati.  The difference between that number and the July study is 69,531, or more than a fifth of the 2000 population count.

But let’s be fair—maybe the study is correct. Maybe all the new residents simply don’t vote, don’t have children, and maybe don’t even have their own homes or apartments.  Maybe Cincinnati is full of invisible residents.

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