Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Issue 27, a microcosm of the country at large

Posted by The Dean of Cincinnati

Guest column by Scott Ryan.

Issue 27 was defeated due to a coalition of groups from opposite ends of the political spectrum.  On the left there were groups such as the NAACP that opposed issue 27 because of its inherent racist agenda of putting more black people in jail.  On the right there was opposition because it would grow “big government”.  The proponents of issue 27 had nothing but the purest of intentions.  They wanted to help the city by reducing crime.  They thought that if they could put more people in jail and additionally use tax money to try and rehabilitate these criminals that crime would decrease and the city would be better off.  This was a very popular position and had support from a large segment of the community.  Opposition started out at the very tips of the bell curve, but quickly gobbled up enough voters from each end to achieve a majority. 

In the past it has rarely been more clear as to what actually went on during the campaign.  The analogy of a bell curve is very accurate.  An overwhelming majority believed that crime was hurting the city and that a new, larger jail would be a positive step towards reducing crime and improving the city.  The problem was the solution proposed by the Hamilton County Commissioners.  In an effort to win votes on both the left and the right, they ended up alienating both and lost.

This model is showing signs of taking the stage yet again, only on a national level.  The Ron Paul Campaign looks to be attacking that bell curve from both ends of the political spectrum.  How much of that curve he will take has yet to be determined, but it is clearly a bi-polar campaign.  From the left he has support from the factions whose primary issue is the war in Iraq.  From the right, his message of small government rings true.

While it becomes much more complex because of the primary system and only the far right attack is visible at the moment, if Ron Paul wins the GOP primary, it will be interesting to see just how balanced his support will be.  In an effort to maximize votes, traditional Democrats and Republicans have pandered to the moderates.  Consequently, there has been a large segment of the population in each general election that has collectively held their noses and voted for the lesser of two evils.  Due to the two party primary system it has been nearly impossible in the past for these “nose holders” to reach a critical mass and actually make a difference. 

However, over the last 20 years or so, an increasing number of states have gone to an open primary system in which one can vote in either primary and sometimes both.  This has not really affected outcomes yet because the candidates that are put forth by the party, while differ slightly on some issues, are all imperfect models made from the same mold.  There are examples of near misses, with regards to trying to beat the system, in the recent past; Howard Dean, Ross Perot, and to some extent Pat Buchanan.

Ron Paul’s attempt to beat the system, like Dean’s, is message driven.  It is going to be fascinating to watch whether or not his message reaches critical mass.  If money equals votes, then he has a shot.  Ron Paul has raised over $18 million this quarter alone and all from grassroots donors.  The median donor amount is $50.00 and the average donor amount is just over $100.

It took less than 60 million votes for Bush to win the white house in the last election.  If this coalition is similar to the coalition that defeated issue 27 then the cost of these votes are relatively cheap.  It cost $.06 per vote in opposition to issue 27.  People were simply looking for a reason to oppose issue 27.  Are people just looking for a reason to elect Ron Paul?

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Impressive says:
18 Dec 2007  at  06:34 pm | #

Ron Paul raises a record 6 million in one day.

cincysuz says:
18 Dec 2007  at  09:06 pm | #

This statement is not true and you know it:
They thought that if they could put more people in jail and additionally use tax money to try and rehabilitate these criminals that crime would decrease and the city would be better off.

Having a new building would not cause more people to go to jail. Cops arrest, judges sentence. People will go to jail if sent there even if they have to be stacked like cord wood. We were smart enough to know that. Especially with a court system packed with Republican judges and prosecutors. People are going to jail every day and there’s no new building. Has that stopped? How do you explain that? Those in support of the jail saw the need for both a better facility AND programs to prevent recividism through rehabilitation, diversion, job training and other support. It was simple. Speak for yourself and don’t continue to perpetuate lies.

New to the City says:
20 Dec 2007  at  12:55 pm | #

Ron Paul has a chance?

Ron Paul will pull votes from the Democrats?

Unlikely.

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