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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
A failure of US centralized banking?
Posted by The Dean of Cincinnati
Guest post by Scott Ryan
I am not a conspiracy buff and I still think that the U.S. markets are the strongest (because they are the freest markets) and I truly believe that the powers that be will prevent a crash at the taxpayer’s expense (worldwide taxpayer), but the question becomes, how much can the average taxpayer afford?
The Fed created this mess, and they may in fact fail trying to get us out of this mess. In the end who pays? You get one guess.
While still highly unlikely, it has now crept into the world consciousness that we may be, possibly, on the brink of the third ever failure of the U.S. centralized banking system.
This will take months if in fact the efforts of the Fed and the President’s Working Group fail, but I wanted to give you a heads up.
My prediction …and I say this with only about a 58% probability and trending lower: The world economy is strong enough to absorb the losses, but only through a massive expansion of the world monetary supply. The result will be inflation, probably exceeding the rate we saw in the 70s. The indirect impact that will have severe long-term consequences will be increased regulation. (It’s like giving an iron deficient woman a good bloodletting)
Here’s the kicker. Even if they fail in creating an artificial bottom to the market and the recession moves into a depression, guess what the indirect impact will be that will have severe long-term consequences?
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